A New Twist on an Old Story

There was a very interesting article at Puck Prospectus today (thanks to Puck Daddy for the link) regarding the Ovechkin-Crosby debate, specifically looking at statistical projects for next season as well as matching each player's 2008-2009 season against historical comparables.

What struck me, beyond the simple (and encouraging) projection that Ovechkin will score 118 points (and likely win the Rocket Richard, Art Ross, and Hart), and the fact that Ovechkin is projected to play all 82 games while Crosby projects to 74, is the criteria listed by Robert Vollman (for Crosby) and Andrew Rothstein (for Ovechkin) to be considered 'the best player in the world' (at least in 2010) is to score 110+ points, lead his team to the Cup finals and win the gold medal.

The problem with that assertion is that it's very likely for both players to be in the same point range, and the chances are much higher for neither to make the finals than it is for one (though currently the odds at Bet365 are 11/2 for Pittsburgh and 12/1 for the Caps!).

However, it is very likely that one of the two young men will be on the gold medal podium at the conclusion of the 2010 Olympics. The Games are being contested in Vancouver and you better believe the home team is the favorite. At that same betting site Team Canada is getting unbelievable even 1/1 odds 1/1 odds on winning it all, while Russia is by far the next-highest contender at 5/2 odds.

I'll be rooting for the U.S., and Sweden is a very strong contender, but realistically either Ovechkin or Crosby will have a gold medal on their resume come February 2010. Also realistically, one gold won't decide the debate between a 23-year-old and a 21-year-old (especially if Canada wins) considering they still have at least 1 more Olympics in them, one of which will be in Russia (assuming the NHLPA decides to attend) and no doubt will combine for at least one or two more Stanley Cups.

Nonetheless, it's an interesting field of battle that has been completely underplayed to this point in time. Crosby has the Cup, Ovechkin has the Hart, but chances are both will have won both by the time their careers end. Olympic gold medals, on the other hand...