Nicklas Backstrom is a monster

This month a popular topic of conversation among hockey types, as it is every October, was whether or not statistical leaders through the first few games of the season and reach otherwise-unattainable records or benchmarks.

With 5 goals in his first three games and then 9 through his first eight, Alexander Ovechkin was one of the primary focuses. Could he score 50 in 50? Could he be the first to break 70 goals since Alexander Mogilny and Teemu Selanne did it in 1992-93? Two goalless games has seen him cede the buzz to LA's Anze Kopitar, but it was (and perhaps still is) a valid question.

Also garnering critical attention in the early goings, though not as much as that of the goal-scorers, was Nicklas Backstrom. Backie-Star had an impressive 8 assists through the first three games of the year. Since then he only earned one assist in the succeeding seven games, though his nine helpers still has him tied for 8th in the NHL and his 11 points is tied for 22nd best.

Even with a seven-game slump, Backstrom is on track for 74 assists this season if he plays all 82 games, which he did in each of his previous two seasons.

In 2008-09 Backstrom finished with 66 assists, which tied him with Ryan Getzlaf for 3rd in the NHL behind Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin (78) and Sidney Crosby (70). At age 21, in only his third full NHL season, there's no reason to believe Backstrom couldn't improve on his numbers once again (his 66 assists and 88 points were a fair increase over his rookie season of 55 assists and 69 points).

What is a reasonable highwater expectation for Backstrom this year? 74 assists on the year works out to .903 assists/game, which is around the rate the NHL leader has kept the past two seasons: Malkin was working at a .951 pace last season and Joe Thornton had 67 assists in 82 games in 2007-08, or a .817 rate. It would require racking up assists at a high rate, but not an unreasonable one.

Number 19, despite owning a pretty nice shot (skip ahead to :35 on this video, for example) and putting 23 shots on net already this year, has always been more comfortable as a traditional pass-first centerman. He gets primo time on the first power play unit with Ovechkin (56 goals in 08-09), Brooks Laich (23), Alexander Semin (34) or Mike Knuble (27), and Mike Green (31). With the way Bruce Boudreau juggles lines, Backstrom could find himself taking a regular shift with any combination of two of the first four players, or Eric Fehr (12 goals in 61 games), Chris Clark (30 goals in 06-07, the last time he played more than 32 games in a season), or Tomas Fleischmann (19 goals in 73 games) once the Czech winger gets healthy.

60 assists in a year has been a pretty good benchmark since the lockout for a first-tier center in the NHL. Fourteen players have earned or surpassed 60 assists 29 times in the four seasons since the lockout. None of the players are flukes, although chances are good some of them won't get near the number again (looking at you, Daniel Alfredsson).

Even another 60+ assists season would puck Backstrom in impressive company. The other players with multiple post-lockout 60+ assist years are Joe Thornton (four), Marc Savard (four), Sidney Crosby (three), Henrik Sedin (three), Pavel Datsyuk (three), and Nicklas Lidstrom (two).

Earning 70 assists would put Backstrom in an even more prestigious club. The only players to equal or surpass that mark since the lockout have been Thornton (twice), Crosby (twice), Malkin, Savard, Sedin and Jason Spezza. Only Thornton and Crosby have topped 80, and Thornton is the only to best 90, putting up back-to-back, spite-filled 96- and 92-assist seasons in 05-06 and 06-07.

A healthy Joe Thornton, more than any specific number, has been the best benchmark of success in the past six seasons. Since 2002-03 Jumbo Joe has finished no worse than 8th in the league in assists, and has led the league in three of those years.

One of the few disappointing things about hockey, if you can even call it disappointing, is that so many of its all-time records are out of reach. Thornton's 96-assist season in 05-06 was the best by any player in over a decade. Wayne Gretzky had eleven straight 100+ assist seasons- the only other players to hit that mark are Mario Lemieux and Bobby Orr, once each. Last season Malkin won the scoring race with 113 points; Gretzky had eight season in which his assist total would have won the 08-09 scoring race. His 163-assist season in 85-86 would have tied for or won outright the NHL scoring title in every season since 89-90. It is simply a different era.

Adjusted stats, which are certainly not recognized by the NHL but provide much better context for players' statistics, and still show that Gretzky's numbers were relatively way beyond how contemporary players are producing. He no longer owns 11 of the top 13 seasons of all time, but 11 of the top 40 still isn't shabby, considering the worst of those season (80-81) still adjusts to 84 assists (by comparison, Thornton's 96 assists in 05-06 adjust down to 92 and Backstrom's 66 assists last year adjust up to 67).

What conclusions can we draw about Nicklas Backstrom? First, with seasons of 55 and 66 assists under his belt he is already one of the NHL's elite set-up men, with similar production as Savard, Sedin, Datsyuk, and Malkin but without the lengthy track record since he's early in his third season.

Chances are no one will hit 100 assists in a season over the course of Backstrom's career. If anyone does, Backstrom probably has the best chance. Assuming he re-ups with the Capitals for a significant amount of time, he'll have Ovechkin on his wing and Green on his point. If the Caps are serious about a Stanley Cup run Backstrom will have to play a starring role.

90 assists is out of the question this year as well, as is 80 realistically. Mid-70s would give him one of the top 5 post-lockout assist totals. That aforementioned 74 assists certainly seems possible, especially given Backstrom's propensity for multi-assist games (30 in 174 career games, including three 4-assist nights). At age 21 Backstrom's best years are still ahead of him, and while a large part of his maturation will come in terms of defensive responsibilities, there's no reason to think that he's already capped out in terms of assists or points.