A Not-So Brief Capitals Trade Deadline Primer

The NHL trade deadline is less than 48 hours away (at the time of this posting), and while the Capitals are not expected to make any major moves, there's no question that General Manager George McPhee would love to upgrade a few specific positions if the right opportunity presents itself.

Never a big fan of free agency, McPhee has pulled off some significant deals in the past few years (Prospect Theo Ruth for Sergei Fedorov, Brian Sutherby for a 2nd round pick that McPhee later traded for Cristobal Huet) that lead me to believe he won't be completely silent this week.

I'm not going to deal with rumors, but I will present this primer for Caps fans curious about the process of deadline day and where the Capitals stand.

First things first, as alluded to above, the trade deadline is at 3 p.m. on Wednesday, March 3. Trades will be announced past the deadline, because 3 p.m. is really the cutoff for teams to notify the NHL of an impending trade, not for official trade calls between both teams and the league to have been completed. Paul at Kukla's Corner has a fantastic primer on the specifics of a transaction here.

A brief salary cap primer

Two important thing of note, that Paul covers, are 1) that player salaries are prorated over the 193-day season, and 2) the player's average salary over the course of the entire contract is what counts against the cap, not their salary for that specific season. There are 40 days left in the regular season as of this upcoming Wednesday, so if you let a player's average salary = Z, the formula for figuring out the cap hit is (Z/193) x 40. Or, you could multiply the salary by 0.207 for a rough estimate.

(For example, prior to signing a contract extension Alexander Semin's salary for last season was $4.2 million and for this season is $5 million. His cap hit both last year and this is $4.6 million, the average of the two years.)

According to the fine folks at nhlnumbers.com (which is a must-have resource for any salary cap info), Washington has $4.270 million worth of cap space this season. That means, theoretically, they could take on players whose cap hit for this season totals approximately $21.35 million. Let me stress, theoretically.

Another point of importance is that after the trade deadline, teams are no longer affected by the 23-man roster limit. The salary cap is still in play, so Washington is more likely to carry under 23 than over. In the playoffs the salary cap disappears, meaning the Caps could call up a slew of prospects from Hershey if they wanted.

One last thing, when considering Washington's assets: the Caps hold eight picks in the upcoming 2010 NHL Entry Draft, their original pick in each of the seven rounds plus Phoenix's pick in the 5th round.

Where do the Caps players stand when it comes to the deadline?

No, I don't mean their personal opinions, but rather their value as trade bait, impact on the franchise, etc. A couple guys are untouchables, and I'll talk about them first, but most players will be in play in some manner or another.

The format is: Player name (age, average salary, years remaining/free agency status)

Untouchables
-Alexander Ovechkin (23, $9.5 million, 11 seasons) is a no-brainer. The Capitals captain is not going anywhere. He's too valuable to the Caps and, frankly, there isn't a trade package in the world that's worth his value. However, as captain (and franchise player) Ovechkin will likely have a say, or at least be able to express his opinion, over deal McPhee may make. Chemistry is crucial for this Washington squad, and dealing a pal of Ovechkin (specifically, Alexander Semin) may be too disruptive for the squad. Similarly, acquiring Sergei Fedorov, one of Ovechkin's idols as a kid, two years ago helped spur Ovechkin to improve his game.
-Mike Knuble (37, $2.8m, 1 year) was signed to a relatively cheap two-year deal last offseason to be a first-line power forward, and has exceeded expectations. Again, it would be tough to find a player to do Knuble's job better than Knuble, who has also been a great veteran presence.
-Nicklas Backstrom (21, $2.4m, Restricted Free Agent) is due a huge contract after this season but one that McPhee and owner Ted Leonsis will gladly pony up for. One of the best passers in the game already and becoming a premier scorer.
-Mike Green (23, $5.25m, 3 years) is a favorite of Caps coach Bruce Boudreau, is the best offensive defenseman in the game, and is one of the catalysts of Washington's power play. Again, not going anywhere.

Guys that probably won't get moved
-Semin (25, $4.6m, 1 year) is, along with three of the four guys mentioned above, one of Washington's Young Guns, has 30 goals already this season and is Ovechkin's best friend on the team. However, at age 25 he will probably hit (if he hasn't already) his statistical peak under his current contract but will be expecting a raise after next year. Nonetheless he's a valuable commodity for teams looking for some scoring punch, so McPhee won't turn away a particularly sweet deal.
-Brooks Laich (26, $2.067m, 1 year) is a fan favorite, and more importantly is versatile, able to play both wings, center, and even pinch in at defense in emergency situations. That plus his relatively low salary for a guy who already has 20 goals makes it unlikely this glue guy will move.
-Jeff Schultz (23, $715k, RFA) is a top four defender getting paid a seventh defenseman salary. McPhee is high on Schultz's value and that combination of effective play and miniscule salary will keep Schultz on the roster. Since he's an RFA the Caps can retain him next season at less than 800k.
-Semyon Varlamov (21, $821k, 1 year) is, along with Michal Neuvirth, a standout goaltending recruit. One of the two goalies will be the Caps netminder of the future, with Varlamov getting a slight edge because of playoff experience. The Capitals expect both Varlamov and Neuvirth to be NHL-quality netminders and to get lots of attention from other teams.

The rest
Rather than try to sort by probability of trades, I'm playing it safe and grouping the rest of the team together.
-Brendan Morrison (33, $1.5m, Unrestricted Free Agent) is a bargain, and even though he's slumped since his torrid start, is willing to accept a depth role on the 3rd or 4th line. He would be a cheap pick up for a team looking for a 3rd line center.
-Tomas Fleischmann (25, $725k, RFA) is possibly the best value in the NHL, in terms of goals scored per dollar. He displayed some versatility playing at center, has gotten time on special teams, and most importantly, is a personal favorite of Boudreau, who perhaps overvalues the Czech player. Teams will certainly ask though, and the pot may be too sweet to reject.
-Jason Chimera (30, $1.875m, 2 years) seems unlikely to be moved, since the Caps just acquired him, but his recurring groin injury may be cause for the team to pick someone else up to fill his 'sandpaper' role.
-Matt Bradley (31, $1m, 1 year) is having a stellar year by Matt Bradley standards, with 8 goals and 5 fights so far. He's a fourth-liner energy guy, a 'glue guy in the locker room, and probably more valuable to the Caps than another team would be willing to pay.
-Eric Fehr (23, $772k, RFA) is the anti-Fleischmann, in that the team undervalues him because he's in Boudreau's doghouse for some reason. Per-minute Fehr is a great player and it wouldn't be surprised if he were traded, since McPhee could get a good return for a guy that doesn't see much ice for Washington.
-Boyd Gordon (25, $761k, RFA) is a penalty kill and faceoff specialist, a consummate fourth-liner who never complains. McPhee loves mediocre players with minimum salaries (plus Gordon is a player in the McPhee mode) so he'll likely remain.
-David Steckel (27, $725k, 3 years) is another grinder, but who was expected to have a better scoring season than he has. That salary info is misleading because his cap hit for the next three seasons will be $1.1m, but still a great deal. Also a Boudreau favorite from his Hershey days, which increases his value to the franchise.
-Quintin Laing (30, $500k, UFA) is unlikely to be moved, simply because he's not an NHL player or a prospect and other teams likely aren't be interested in him. He provides great energy for the Caps even though he doesn't touch the ice, but he's a guy you'd think McPhee would gladly move if Laing would get a chance to stick on an NHL roster.
-Tom Poti (32, $3.5m, 1 year) has transitioned from puck-moving to shutdown defenseman as a member of the Caps, and in either position he is a good deal. Could get a lot of attention from teams looking to improve their defense, but since the Caps will likely try to do the same it's unlikely they'll move one of their cornerstones.
-Brian Pothier (32, $2.5m, UFA), on the other hand, is far more likely to move. He's still a puck-moving defenseman when the Caps already have one on the team (Green) and another in the system (John Carlson), and he'll be an unrestricted free agent after this season, which makes him an ideal single-season pickup for a team looking to make a stretch run.
-Shaone Morrisonn (26, $1.975, UFA) has the same contract status and a similarly low salary as Pothier, and has struggled at times. Considering Washington's depth at defense, it's unlikely both Pothier and Morrisonn would be moved.
-John Erskine (29, $1.25m, 1 year) is a sixth or seventh defenseman on an NHL team and excels when given that limited role. He is also, along with Bradley, Washington's de facto enforcer. Could be moved in an attempt to shed salary if Washington is up against the salary cap, as he could be replaced by a player from Hershey with half the salary, but I can't foresee him being moved because of value to another squad.
-Tyler Sloan (28, $640k, 2 years) is obviously coveted by other NHL teams, because otherwise the Caps would send him through the waiver wire to Hershey. He's proven he can be an adequate bottom-two defenseman and fourth-line forward, which is good versatility for the Caps. Perhaps McPhee could get a late pick for Sloan.
-Jose Theodore (32, $4.5m, UFA) is an extremely valuable commodity. He's a starting NHL goalie with winning experience, is reasonably paid (15th-highest paid goalie in a 30 team league), and his contract comes off the books after this season. Washington will be making a run for the Cup this season and could be looking to upgrade over Theodore, but that doesn't mean Theo couldn't still bring back a nice package from a team looking for an experienced backup or trying to play the string out. Theodore won't get traded unless McPhee acquires another goalie at some point. However, as the general manager proved in 2008, he could very well hang on to Theodore and pick up another goalie,

In the System
-John Carlson (19, $846k, 2 years) made waves last season when he jumped straight from his junior team to the top defensive pair on the Hershey Bears AHL championship squad, and has played well in 7 games with the Caps this winter. He's being called a sure thing, and is as blue chip as a prospect can get. Carlson will be the first player every team asks for in a trade, but it would require a Kovalchuk-type player (who's not a rental) to pry him away.
-Karl Alzner (20, $875k, 1 year) was previously considered the future leader of Washington's defense, but this former 5th overall pick's stock has fallen slightly after a mediocre 21-game stint with the Caps earlier in the season. Still, Alzner can't even drink legally yet, so it's far too early to write him off. He's very appetizing trade bait, and perhaps slightly more expendable now that Carlson is in the system.
-Marcus Johansson (19, Farjestads BK Karlstad, Swedish Elite League) is Washington's most recent first round pick, and is a highly-regarded, having been compared favorably with basically every good Swedish center to play in the NHL. He's a leader even at 19 and, like Carlson, it would take an impressive deal to part Johansson from the Caps.
-Michal Neuvirth (21, $850k, RFA) has demonstrated himself, at 21, to be an above-averageNHL netminder and is currently the starter in Hershey because of the logjam at goalie for the Caps. More durable than Varlamov but less of a game-stealer, Neuvirth's name will come up in many trade talks.
-Keith Aucoin (30, $486k, UFA) and Alexandre Giroux (28, $500k, UFA) may draw interest from a team looking to shore up a farm system or who has some spare spots on the big league club. Both have shown they are AHL all-stars, the Bruce Boudreau type, but unable to translate that ability to the NHL for whatever reason.
-Mathieu Perreault (21, $667k, 1 year) has been a surprise for the Bears and looked decent in a stint with the Caps. The former 6th round pick had trouble adjusting to the the level of play in the NHL as his 18 game stint wore on, and as Perreault is undersized he's most likely undervalued by other teams, who would not give up what McPhee thinks Perreault is worth in a trade.
-Braden Holtby (19, $597k, 1 year) is currently 4th on the Caps' goaltending depth chart, but is a guy who'd be starting for almost every other NHL team's AHL franchise. Neuvirth and Varlamov are more likely to be traded, and Holtby is the asset who makes one of those two goalies expendable.